Tom Brady Worst on 3rd & Long?

The NFL is in BEASTMODE. It’s playoff time! A wondrous ‘tournament style’ second season bringing heightened awareness to just about every aspect associated with victory. The NFL Playoffs bring the best coaches, the best game plans and of course the best players to achieve it – but what peaks my interest is the ease for the elite in the regular season, is replace with more struggling situations.

Today, I want to provide you with a case study of one of those tougher situations – the infamous 3rd and long. A familiar statistical reference teams want to avoid “like the plague”.

The subjects of this analysis are five playoff probables to whom the word “elite” has been applied to their play this year. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Matt Stafford. I had Courage apply his expertise by charting this specific and the results may surprise you as to who’s the worst.

The best is Drew Brees. In 82 pass attempts of 3rd and 7 or more he amassed a conversion rate of 45 percent for 794 yards for an impressive 9.68 yards per attempt with 2 TDs and 1 interception. The best part is he was sacked only once!

Aaron Rodgers was second with a conversion rate of 41 percent for 616 yards and an equally impressive 8.68 yards per attempt. Rodgers was sacked a respectable 5 times in 71 attempts with 2TDs and 0 interceptions.

Third place may surprise you… it’s Matt Stafford. The Lion’s signal caller is actually a weapon on 3rd and long. His conversion rate is 30 percent for 700 yards but get this…he threw an eye-popping 7 touchdowns blowing away the others. He threw on 2 interceptions and he wasn’t sacked once in 99 attempts!

Second to last is Eli Manning. His conversion rate was the lowest at 22 percent but when he did complete it was for the highest yard total of 855. Sacked 4 times in 92 attempts he threw 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.


The worst was Tom Brady which isn’t surprising to me but I’m sure you’re shocked. His conversion rate was 27 percent with the lowest yardage amount (540). His average per attempt (6.84) was the only of those pooled lower than the 7 yard barometer. But what really spells it out is he was sacked 12 times on 3rd and 7 or more situations – by far the worst of the group.

From my interpretation force Brady into 3rd and long and your chances of sacking him increases bigtime. Force Stafford, Rodgers or Brees and your concerns aren’t over. For some it’s no-no for others it’s go-go. Look for it throughout these playoffs. I guarantee you it will germaine to victory.

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13 Responses to “Tom Brady Worst on 3rd & Long?”
  1. brad says:

    this matt flynn situation is and is going to be interesting redskins go into yet another offseason looking for franchise qb and rglll could be gone by 6 forcing them to move to 2nd tier qb’s or matt flynn route another messy situation for skins at qb

    • The Deep Dig says:

      Not sure I’d go with Flynn. He hadn’t exactly proven much more than rookie prospects. Packets have high level skill personnel.

  2. Packman in Texas says:

    Epic take Brad! I figured that Aaron would be closer to Drew in that regard, but I bet if we charted drops in those same situations, Aaron would have the most drops in 3rd and 7 and longer by far. Would be interesting to see!

  3. brad says:

    great post interesting as always

  4. Hello Thanks for displaying well prepared information.I will be bookmarking your page for future reference.good luck with this great site.

  5. I for one am not sold on Flynn. Zero pressure in that Detroit game. I may be wrong, but I have my doubts. I just think McCarthy’s offense is a good fit for him. Not so sure a Pat Schurmur or Mike Shanahan offense would do him wonders. Maybe Pete Carroll will get tempted. There’s a lot of places he could go, question is, who will overspend, and most likely live to regret it? I see Flynn’s ceiling in the Ryan Fitzpatrick vicinity

  6. Excellent Read. Best one on Deep Dig so far.

  7. Mike says:

    Great Atricle Brad as usual!!!! ….Interesting About Brady but not surprising to me either

  8. Blake Todd says:

    I like the statistical analysis of this situation. I haven’t watched enough football this year, I’m ready for the playoffs though

  9. relationship says:

    Hi thank you for this well prepared information.I decided I will be bookmarking you for future reference.Keep up the interesting work.

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